SigSci Develops R Package to Support Accurate U.S. COVID-19 Forecasting

Image of a globe and a workflow with the text "FOCUS: Forecasting COVID-19 in the United States."

Authors: VP Nagraj, Chris Hulme-Lowe, Stephanie L. Guertin, Stephen D. Turner

Abstract: Infectious disease forecasting has been a useful tool for public health planning and messaging during the COVID-19 pandemic. In partnership with the CDC, the organizers of the COVID-19 Forecast Hub have created a mechanism for forecasters from academia, industry, and government organizations to submit weekly near-term predictions of COVID-19 targets in the United States. Here we describe our efforts to participate in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub through the Forecasting COVID-19 in the United States (FOCUS) project. The effort led to more than three months of weekly submissions and development of an automated pipeline to generate forecasts. The models used in FOCUS yielded forecasts that ranked relatively well in terms of precision and accuracy.

View paper on medRxiv: here